Research
Notes on the market.
Independent research on digital asset markets — market structure, regulation, derivatives data, tokenisation and on-chain credit. Every figure is sourced and dated. None of it is investment advice.
2026 · 09 · 12 min read
The year the plumbing held
Through 2026 no major exchange failed, no large lender collapsed and no significant stablecoin broke its peg — while stablecoins, tokenisation and on-chain credit all grew. Why that is structural rather than lucky.
2026 · 09 · 10 min read
Tokenized assets pass $32 billion
Tokenized real-world assets grew 173% year on year to June 2026, led by $15 billion of US treasuries. Who is issuing, what the DTCC pilot signals, and what the headline number is not.
2026 · 08 · 10 min read
Stablecoins became infrastructure
Supply passed $321 billion in April 2026 while the asset class it settles fell by half. Why that divergence points to payments and treasury use rather than trading collateral.
2026 · 08 · 9 min read
MiCA’s single market arrives
The EU’s transitional period closed on 1 July 2026, replacing twenty-seven national regimes with one passport. Around 230 firms qualified out of more than 1,200.
2026 · 07 · 11 min read
Reading the CLARITY Act
The bill would divide SEC and CFTC authority using a four-part maturity test. Where it stands after stalling in the Senate, and why the 20% concentration condition is interesting on its own terms.
2026 · 07 · 10 min read
Why volatility keeps falling
Bitcoin implied volatility reached a seven-month low of 38% in May 2026 — in the middle of a 52% drawdown. Three structural explanations, and what lower volatility does not mean.
2026 · 06 · 11 min read
How deep is the book?
Depth within 200 basis points, sub-basis-point spreads, venue concentration and on-chain credit conditions — what digital asset market microstructure actually measures in 2026.
2026 · 06 · 12 min read
Forty-six days of negative funding
Perpetual funding stayed negative for 46 consecutive days in spring 2026, the longest run since FTX. The arithmetic of an inverted carry book, worked through at notional.
2026 · 05 · 10 min read
The ETF complex at three years
US spot bitcoin ETFs hold $135 billion and have absorbed $56.5 billion of net inflows. In 2026 they demonstrated the other half of what a wrapper does.
2026 · 05 · 9 min read
Ethereum’s staking equilibrium
About 32% of ether is staked, net yields have converged near 2.1%, and supply grows 0.85% a year. The parameters have stabilised, and the steady-state numbers are the useful ones.
2026 · 04 · 9 min read
DeFi credit through the drawdown
On-chain lending carried $58 billion through a 52% fall in its collateral without disorderly liquidation, where 2022 produced a sector-wide failure. What changed, and what is still untested.
2026 · 03 · 11 min read
A reader’s guide to derivatives data
Open interest, funding and liquidation data are free, continuous and widely misread. What each measures, what each is worth annualised, and where each stops being informative.
Read this as an investor.
Open an account and these notes come with a balance beside them — your own positions, your own performance, and a person to ask about either.